DEBUNKING THE MYTHS OF THE 2004 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

WHAT REALLY HAPPENED!

To:  McLaughlinOnline.com Readers
From:  McLaughlin & Associates
Re:  Election Myths Debunked
Date:  November 11, 2004

Overview

As we listen to post-election carping and whining from liberals and the old (liberal) media, we can only come to one conclusion: they still don't get it! 2004 was an historic election, vindicating the policies and principles of not only George W. Bush, but also the Republican Party. For the first time since 1988, a Presidential candidate received a majority of the popular vote, and the Republican Party defied history and gained seats in both the U.S. Senate and the House of Representatives.

The theories from liberals and the old media as to why John Kerry lost the Presidential election reconfirm that they just don't understand the values and priorities of middle-class America. While they seem to believe that most Americans who voted for President Bush are idiots, religious zealots, or both, the results from our post-election survey show the American people gave President Bush a clear victory for practical and common-sense reasons. They voted for George W. Bush because they trusted his character and were more in agreement with him on the two most important issues of the day: fighting the war on terror and improving the economy.

In spite of what liberals and the media may say, the voters made an educated and rational decision in giving President Bush a clear victory on Election Day.

Myth #1:  The American people don't like George W. Bush or his policies.

Fact: A clear majority of voters (54%) approve of the job George W. Bush has done as President.

Ironically, George W. Bush's favorable rating was lower than his job approval rating. This means people voted for President Bush because they believed he was doing a good job and agreed with him on the most important issues of the day, which were keeping America safe from terror and improving the economy.

Myth #2:  American voters didn't vote for Bush; they were voting against Kerry, and didn't want to change horses during a time of war.

Fact: 83% of Bush voters said they were voting FOR George W. Bush; while only 11% said they were voting AGAINST John Kerry. The leading responses as to why Americans voted for President Bush were because they felt he was doing a good job and they agreed with him on the issues.

"What was the single most important reason you voted for
George W. Bush?" (Top Verbatim Responses)

In contrast, only 52% of Kerry voters were voting FOR John Kerry and 42% said they were voting AGAINST George W. Bush.

Myth #3:  George W. Bush only won because of gay marriage.

Fact: Less than 2% said gay marriage was the most important issue in deciding their vote for President. Terrorism/War in Iraq (38%) and economic issues (26%) were the most important issues to voters. Nearly two-thirds of the voters said either terrorism/war or economic issues were the most important in deciding their vote. In fact, gay marriage was the least important issue among voters in
deciding their vote for President. Overall, 12% mentioned a moral issue as being the most important in deciding their vote.

Myth #4:  John Kerry beat George W. Bush in the debates.

Fact: By a 50% to 47% margin, voters were more likely to agree with George W. Bush on the issues in the debates.

While the liberal media and the national Democrats seemed to be scoring the debates on style points (and on a scale biased against the President in the first place), the American people were more concerned about the issues and substance, and said they were more likely to agree with George W. Bush on those issues.

Myth #5:  George W. Bush lost moderate Republicans because he was too extreme.

Fact: George W. Bush beat John Kerry among Republicans 92% to 8%. There was virtually no such thing as a Kerry Republican in this election. George W. Bush received 85% of the moderate Republican vote.

Myth #6:  Okay, George W. Bush was too extreme for women.

Fact: George W. Bush tied John Kerry among women, and he won decisively among men. There remains a marriage gap, as George W. Bush does significantly better among married voters. In addition, George W. Bush had a clear advantage among married women over John Kerry.

Myth #7:  Conservative ideology hurts George W. Bush and Republicans.

Fact: The conservative issue philosophy is the biggest strength of the Republican Party!

Self-described conservatives (40%) outnumbered liberals (22%) by nearly a 2 to 1 margin, and those conservatives voted overwhelmingly for George W. Bush. Moderates accounted for 34% of the electorate. George W. Bush's advantage among conservatives clearly helped propel him to victory.

Myth #8:  All the undecided voters will go for John Kerry.

Fact: George W. Bush received a large share of the undecided voters! President Bush received the majority of the vote from early deciders, and shattered the hypothesis that undecided voters would overwhelmingly break against an incumbent President by garnering a large share of late deciders.

Myth #9:  The American people know the Bush tax cuts hurt the economy.

Fact: According to CNN's exit polls, by a 40% to 33% margin, voters believe the Bush tax cuts were good for the economy over those who said they were bad for the economy.

Myth #10:  Americans like John Kerry's economic policies better than George W. Bush's.

Fact: John Kerry's class warfare strategy backfired, and voters agreed more with George W. Bush when it came to the economy.

While John Kerry won with households earning less than $20K a year, he lost decisively among middle class households earning over $20K a year. Whenever a politician like John Kerry talks about raising taxes, even when he says it will only affect the wealthy, middle-class Americans hold onto their wallets!

Myth #11:  Americans oppose the war in Iraq, and they don't believe the war in Iraq has made them safer.

Fact: Americans believe the war in Iraq is making them safer here at home. In CNN's exit poll, by a 50% to 46% margin, voters approved of the President's decision to go to war in Iraq and 54% believe the war in Iraq is keeping us safer here at home.

Myth #12:  George W. Bush's pro-life position hurts him politically.

Fact: Among single-issue abortion voters, those who said abortion was the most important issue in deciding their vote for President, George W. Bush won overwhelmingly 85% to 15%.

Myth #13:  George W. Bush and the Republicans can't win a ground war on Election Day against John Kerry and the Democrats.

Fact: George W. Bush and the Republicans won the ground war on Election Day. More people received phone calls from George W. Bush's campaign, especially in the battleground states.

George W. Bush won by significantly higher margins among voters who voted in person on Election Day, which means the Bush campaign was more effective in terms of "get out the vote" efforts when it counted the most.

Myth #14:  George W. Bush can't compete with John Kerry and the Democrats when it comes to the Latino vote.

Fact: George W. Bush received 42% of the Latino vote according to the CNN exit poll.

Myth #15:  Self-proclaimed Catholic John Kerry will overwhelmingly win the Catholic vote over George W. Bush.

Fact: George W. Bush won among Catholics, 51% to 49%.

Methodology

This National post-election survey of political attitudes was conducted among 1,000 actual voters on November 2, 2004 (Election Night). All interviews were conducted via telephone by professionally trained data collectors on McLaughlin & Associates' state-of-the-art CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) system. Respondent selection was at random. This sample of 1,000 actual voters has an accuracy of ±3.1% at a 95% confidence interval.

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