M&A POLL: RUDY AND HILLARY EARLY FRONTRUNNERS IN 2008 PRESIDENT RACE

To:  McLaughlinOnline.com Readers
From:  McLaughlin & Associates
Re:  Post-Election Poll - 2008 Presidential Primaries
Date:  November 4, 2004

Survey Summary: With the words of George W. Bush’s acceptance speech, and John Kerry’s concession, still echoing loudly, the media speculation is already starting about the 2008 election for President.

Our 2004 Election Night poll asked respondents to think ahead about their choice among prospective 2008 primary candidates for President. It appears that former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) and New York Senator Hillary Clinton (D) are the early frontrunners.

Giuliani is the current choice of nearly one-third (30.0%) of Republicans and Independents, who were asked the Republican primary ballot. Arizona Senator John McCain is next, with 17.8% of the vote. Not surprisingly, 4 in 10 Republican and Independent voters (39.9%) are undecided. Among Republicans, Giuliani enjoys almost twice as much support as McCain, with 34.4% to 15.0%. However, McCain actually leads among Independents, with 26.2% to Giuliani's 16.5%. Not one of the other choices from the Republican roster, which included Gov. Jeb Bush (FL), Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (TN), Gov. George Pataki (NY), Gov. Mitt Romney (MA), and Gov. Bill Owens (CO), received more than 6% of the vote.

"Thinking ahead to the next presidential election, if the 2008 Republican primary for President were held today and the candidates were John McCain, Bill Frist, Rudy Giuliani, George Pataki, Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush, and Bill Owens, for whom would you vote?"

On the Democrat side, Hillary Clinton is the early front-runner, receiving 27.3% of the vote among Democrats and Independents who were asked the Democrat Primary Ballot. John Kerry, who may consider another run for the Presidency, is Clinton's closest competition, garnering 16.0% of the ballot. Like the Republicans, no other Democrat choice, who included John Edwards, Al Gore, Howard Dean, Evan Bayh, Wesley Clark, Barack Obama, Harold Ford Jr., and Mark Warner garnered more than 7% of the vote. More than one-third of Democrats (34.9%) are undecided.

"Thinking ahead to the next presidential election, if the 2008 Democrat primary for President were held today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton, Al Gore, John Kerry, Mark Warner, Howard Dean, John Edwards, Harold Ford Jr., Evan Bayh, Barack Obama, and Wesley Clark, for whom would you vote?"

Methodology

A post-election survey of 1000 respondents, nationwide, who cast a vote on Election Day was conducted by McLaughlin & Associates on Election Night. This sample of 1000 voters, nationwide, has a margin of error of ±3.1% at a 95% confidence interval.

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