OPINIONES LATINAS: SIGNIFICANT LEAD FOR BUSH AMONG FLORIDA HISPANICS

LEADS KERRY 62-29 AMONG HISPANIC REGISTERED VOTERS

October 14, 2004

Contact: Martha Lozada, 202.546.0008

NATIONAL MEDIA RELEASE

Washington, D.C. — Opiniones Latinas client The Latino Coalition released Friday the results of its Hispanic survey in the state of Florida, conducted as part of its annual National Hispanic Survey. The survey of 1,000 Latino adults was conducted between September 27-October 3, 2004, in both English and Spanish; an oversample was conducted in Florida to achieve a sample size of 200 interviews, and the results in Florida were weighted down into the national survey, to be proportional to the actual census distribution.

The Florida survey reveals a 62%-29% advantage among Hispanic registered voters for President George W. Bush over Democrat nominee Sen. John Kerry.

"This survey shows that President Bush has been able to develop a significant lead among Florida Hispanic registered voters, and could make the difference in who wins Florida in November," said TLC President Robert Deposada. "According to VNS, in 2000 Bush won the Hispanic vote by a 49%-48% margin. But if the election were today, President Bush's lead could solidify Florida's electoral votes to his column. The Florida numbers confirm the national trend showing the race for Hispanic registered voters is very tight, with Senator Kerry with only a nine points lead over President Bush (47-38). At this stage in the game, the Democratic Presidential candidate should have been with a two-to-one lead and securing around 60% of the Hispanic vote. This is a serious problem for Senator John Kerry, if he is to carry key swing states with large Hispanic populations like New Mexico, Arizona, Colorado, Nevada and Florida."

In the U.S. Senate race in Florida, Hispanic registered voters prefer Republican Mel Martinez over Democrat Betty Castor by a 65% - 25% margin. Martinez leads among Cubans (77-14) and among non-Cubans (42-37).

"Senator Kerry's weak standing among Florida Hispanic voters could be complicated even further if President Bush's campaign focuses more on promoting their record on a variety of issues Hispanic voters care deeply about", Deposada added. "The President's cornerstone program in education, the No Child Left Behind program, has strong support among Hispanic voters (81-12). His immigration initiative has a 57% level of support and there's strong support for reducing taxes among Hispanic registered voters," Deposada added.

You may see more detailed survey results by clicking on the following links to a survey topline and slideshow presentation, both viewable in Adobe Acrobat Reader (available for free download), at the Web site of the Latino Coalition (posted with the offical TLC media release) at www.TheLatinoCoalition.com.

Methodology

This national Hispanic survey was conducted by Opiniones Latinas between September 27-October 3, 2004, among 1,000 Hispanic adults. All interviews were conducted by professional English- and Spanish-speaking interviewers via telephone. Respondents were given the option of conducting the survey in English or Spanish. Interview selection was at random within predetermined population units. These units were structured to correlate statistically with the nation's adult Hispanic population according to the 2000 U.S. Census. The accuracy of this national survey of 1,000 Hispanic adults is within ±3.1%, at a 95% confidence interval. An oversample was conducted in Florida to achieve a sample size of 200 interviews, and the results in Florida were weighted down into the national survey, to be proportional to the actual census distribution.

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