M&A NATIONAL POLL: BUSH MAINTAINS POST-DEBATE LEAD NATIONWIDE


To:  McLaughlinOnline.com Readers
From:  John McLaughlin, Jim McLaughlin
Re:  National Survey Results - Presidential Election
Date:  October 5, 2004


Key Findings:

"If the election for President were held today, and the candidates were George W. Bush, the Republican candidate, John Kerry, the Democrat candidate, and Ralph Nader, the Independent candidate, for whom would you vote?" *
Total
Republican
Democrat
Independent
Bush 
47.8
91.1
12.6
35.8
Kerry 
44.7
5.0
83.5
46.0
Nader 
1.3
0.8
0.5
4.3
Undecided
6.2
3.1
3.3
13.9
Watched Debate/
Saw Post-Debate Reports
Didn't Watch Debate/
See Post-Debate Reports
Bush 
49.0
42.0
Kerry 
44.5
44.3
Nader 
1.5
0.0
Undecided
4.9
13.7

*Survey test ballot included Ralph Nader only in states in which Nader is currently on the presidential ballot.


"Will you please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of George W. Bush? If you have no opinion or have never heard of him, just say so."
Total
Republican
Democrat
Independent
Favorable 
52.2
91.6
16.2
44.9
Unfavorable 
42.7
6.0
79.4
44.9
No Opinion 
5.1
2.4
4.4
10.2
Watched Debate/
Saw Post-Debate Reports
Didn't Watch Debate/
See Post-Debate Reports
Favorable 
52.9
48.1
Unfavorable 
42.8
42.0
No Opinion 
4.3
9.9



"Will you please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of John Kerry? If you have no opinion or have never heard of him, just say so."
Total
Republican
Democrat
Independent
Favorable 
48.7
13.9
83.5
48.1
Unfavorable 
42.8
79.0
11.3
35.3
No Opinion 
8.0
6.8
4.1
16.6
Watched Debate/
Saw Post-Debate Reports
Didn't Watch Debate/
See Post-Debate Reports
Favorable 
48.8
48.1
Unfavorable 
43.6
38.9
No Opinion 
7.0
13.0



"This past Thursday, George W. Bush and John Kerry had a debate. Did you actually watch any part of the debate or did you only see news reports about the debate? If you did not watch the debate and did not see any news reports about the debate, just say so."
Total
Republican
Democrat
Independent
YES 
85.3
87.9
86.9
80.2
Debate only   
30.4
29.9
32.9
25.7
Reports only   
11.8
12.1
10.8
13.4
Both   
43.1
45.9
43.2
41.2
NO, NEITHER 
13.1
11.8
12.9
17.6
DK/Refused 
1.6
0.3
0.3
2.1



"Regarding the news media coverage of the presidential debates that you have seen, would you say the coverage has been more favorable to George W. Bush or John Kerry?"
Total
Republican
Democrat
Independent
Favorable Bush
12.0
12.7
13.8
8.8
Much more Bush    
6.4
9.0
5.7
2.9
Smwht more Bush    
5.6
3.6
8.1
5.9
Favorable Kerry
54.1
59.7
51.9
48.0
Much more Kerry    
27.3
28.1
24.8
32.4
Smwht more Kerry    
26.8
31.7
27.1
15.7
No Difference
29.3
24.4
31.0
26.3
DK/Refused
4.6
3.2
3.3
6.9

*Only asked of repondents who saw news reports about the debate.


Methodology

This national survey of political attitudes was conducted among 1,000 likely voters between October 2-3, 2004. All interviews were conducted via telephone by professionally trained data collectors on McLaughlin & Associates' state-of-the art CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) system. Respondent selection was at random, within predetermined geographic units. These units were structured to correlate statistically with actual voter turnout for national elections. This sample of 1,000 likely voters has a margin of error of ±3.1% at a 95% confidence interval.

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