M&A NATIONAL POLL: IMPACT OF MICHAEL MOORE'S FAHRENHEIT 9-11 OVERBLOWN

To:  McLaughlinOnline.com Readers
From:  John McLaughlin, Jim McLaughlin
Re:  Mel Gibson and Conservative Talk Radio Trump Michael Moore
Date:  August 5, 2004

The political impact of Michael Moore's movie Fahrenheit 9-11 on this year's presidential election appears to be overestimated. The perception of any political impact should be attributed to media hype and not political reality. The survey results show that Mel Gibson's movie The Passion of the Christ drew a far larger and more diverse audience. Also, conservative talk radio appears to be a much better medium for reaching and influencing voters than Fahrenheit 9-11.

While Michael Moore's movie may have done relatively well in the box office, nearly 8 out of 9 likely voters (87%) have not seen the movie. Only a small percentage of likely voters (12%) have seen the movie, and the profile of these moviegoers heavily skews Democrat and liberal. In this year's presidential election, where the electorate is extremely polarized and most of the voters have decided their vote, Fahrenheit 9-11 does nothing more than preach to the choir. Hardly any Republicans or conservatives have seen the movie.

"Have you seen Michael Moore's movie Fahrenheit 9-11?"

In comparison, Mel Gibson's movie, The Passion of the Christ, nearly tripled Fahrenheit 9-11's reach among likely voters. Nearly one-third (31%) of likely voters have seen The Passion of the Christ.

Conservatives and Republicans went to see The Passion in slightly higher numbers, but the percentage of liberals and Democrats who saw Gibson's The Passion was higher than those who saw Moore's Fahrenheit 9-11.

"Have you seen Mel Gibson's movie The Passion of the Christ?"

	Total	Vote Bush	Vote Kerry	Vote Nader	Firm Undec'd
Yes	31%	38%	25%	32%	20%
No	68	61	74	68	80
DK/Refused	1	1	1	0	0

	Republican	Democrat	Independent
Yes	38%	25%	30%
No	62	74	70
DK/Refused	0	0	0

	Liberal	Moderate	Conservative
Yes	27%	26%	37%
No	73	73	62
DK/Refused	0	1	1

	White	Hispanic	African-Amer.
Yes	29%	45%	36%
No	71	53	64
DK/Refused	0	2	0

	Protestant	Catholic	Jewish	Atheist/ Agnostic
Yes	33%	35%	5%	13%
No	66	64	95	85
DK/Refused	1	1	0	2

Looking at the partisan makeup among both the audiences that had seen The Passion and Fahrenheit 9-11, Michael Moore's audience was significantly narrower, containing more partisan Democrats.

	Total	Seen Passion/Christ	Seen Fahrenheit 9-11
Republican	38%	47%	12%
Democrat	40	33	59
Independent	15	15	18
Other	1	1	3
DK/Refused	6	5	8

Michael Moore's movie also pales in comparison to the reach and influence of conservative talk radio. Three in ten likely voters regularly listen to conservative radio programs like Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, Laura Ingraham, G. Gordon Liddy, Oliver North, and Michael Reagan.

"How often do you listen to conservative radio programs like Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, Laura Ingraham, G. Gordon Liddy, Oliver North, Michael Reagan or other conservative radio talk show hosts?"

	Total	GOP	Dem	Ind
Regularly	31%	43%	18%	32%
Every day	9	14	3	8
Almost every day	6	9	3	8
Couple times/week	11	15	8	10
Once a week	5	5	4	6
Rarely	22	21	23	21
Never	47	36	59	46

	Liberal	Moderate	Conservative
Regularly	23%	23%	45%
Every day	5	5	16
Almost every day	4	4	10
Couple times/week	10	9	13
Once a week	4	5	6
Rarely	18	27	20
Never	59	50	35

	Vote Bush	Vote Kerry	Vote Nader	Firm Undec'd
Regularly	44%	18%	33%	20%
Every day	15	3	3	7
Almost every day	9	3	7	5
Couple times/week	14	8	7	9
Once a week	6	4	16	0
Rarely	22	22	10	25
Never	34	60	55	51

The bottom-line seems to be that although conservatives often complain about the media and Hollywood, it appears that this year, thanks to Mel Gibson and conservative talk radio, they have made an important cultural statement.

Methodology

This national survey of political attitudes was conducted among 1000 likely general election voters between July 14-15, 2004. All interviews were conducted via telephone by professionally trained data collectors on McLaughlin & Associates' state-of-the art CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) system. Respondent selection was at random. This sample of 1000 likely general election voters has a margin of error of ±3.1% at a 95% confidence interval.

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