M&A NATIONAL POLL: BUSH LEADS BY ONE; NO BOUNCE FROM EDWARDS

To:  McLaughlin & Associates Clients
From:  John McLaughlin, Jim McLaughlin
Re:  The Margin of Error Presidential Election
Date:  July 20, 2004

The July 8th National Review Online article by our former partner Tony Fabrizio (there has not been any McLaughlin at Tony's firm for years), generated several calls and emails to our firm asking our opinion. As the article speculated, the fact is there will be no 15 point shortfall for the Bush campaign, so don't take Tony's concern for precedents that "spell doom for the Bush campaign" too seriously.

Instead, as we have forecast in the past, this election will be the "overtime" election from the 2000 presidential election. In effect the 2000 race turned out to be a partisan tie for President, Senate and Congress. 9-11 created a historic political change which ended the politics of triangulation of the 1990's, and replaced it with a new phase of partisan polarization. In this electoral dynamic of total polarization it is extremely unlikely that either Presidential candidate can obtain a lead in the national polls outside the margin of error of these polls for the near future. Basically each campaign is expending massive political resources to move relatively few voters at the margins in only 19 battleground states, which in total geography represent only 4 in 10 voters.

Our most recent national poll of 1,000 likely voters July 14 and 15 (±3.1% margin of error at 95% C.I.), shows that the Presidential race remains a dead heat: George W. Bush 46.1%, John Kerry 44.9%, Ralph Nader 3.1% and the firmly undecided only 5.9%. What makes it even more of a dead heat is that the undecided voters really don't like either candidate right now, with 36.7% of the undecided voters favorable to President Bush, but only 19% of them favorable to John Kerry.

Why was there no major bounce for John Kerry after all of the favorable media coverage of his selection of John Edwards for Vice President, and why will there be no major bounce for either candidate in the foreseeable future? Our latest poll shows that both candidates Bush and Kerry have significant unfavorables. The President maintains a favorable rating with a majority of the likely voters at 51.6%, but has an unfavorable rating of 44.0%. The Kerry strategy becomes very obvious: drop the President's favorable rating under 50%. In contrast John Kerry has a favorable rating with a plurality of voters at 44.9% and an almost equal unfavorable rating of 41.5%. The Bush campaign strategy becomes equally obvious: raise Kerry's negatives higher than his positives.

Unfavorable ratings for candidates are very hard to get rid of. Once a voter doesn't like you, it makes it very hard to get their vote. In national polls the battle lines look like a political metaphor for World War I style trench warfare — huge casualties for very little real estate. The President's favorables will determine whether he stays in the lead. Kerry's strategist Bob Shrum knows this. (We faced him before in Virginia's 1997 gubernatorial race.) You can tell from Shrum's constant shifting of media messages away from issues and towards character — particularly character attacks upon the President. Right now the President maintains very strong favorables with Republicans and conservatives. The polar opposites, liberals and Democrats, don't like him. The President does better in the heartland of the Midwest and South while he is a net unfavorable in the East and West where most voters are more likely to live on or near the coast. The President remains popular in the "Red States" which he won in 2000 , and unpopular in the "Blue States" which Al Gore won. However, in the 19 battleground states(AZ, AK, CO, FL, IA, LA, ME, MI, MN, MO, NV, NH, NM, OH, OR, PA, WA, WV, WI) the President's popular edge is more narrow. In the battleground Red States the President has a mere 2% favorable edge, but in the battleground Blue States the President is slightly more popular.

98% of the President's voters are favorable to him, so there is very little possibility for collapse in his vote. Meanwhile there is little room to take votes from Kerry whose voters dislike the President with 88% saying they are unfavorable to Bush.

Key swing voter groups with whom the President will want to raise his favorables include: independents, moderates, ticket splitters, Hispanics, Catholics and seniors.

Opinion George W. Bush

For the most part John Kerry's favorable ratings remain the mirror image of President Bush's at polar opposites. Clearly John Kerry is the anti-Bush candidate and is a creation of the President's unfavorable ratings. However, Kerry has been unable to build a majority favorable rating as Al Gore had at this time in 2000. That will be the primary objective of his convention media.

Kerry must be concerned with his high negatives in the West, in battleground states, among voters who earn more than $40,000 a year in their household, among white voters, Protestants and men.

Opinion John Kerry

	Total	East	Midwest	South	West
Favorable	44.9%	56%	40%	41%	46%
Unfavorable	41.5	30	47	45	40
No Opinion	13.1	13	13	14	13

	Red States	Blue States	Battlegd States	Battlegd Red	Battlegd Blue
Favorable	40%	49%	44%	48%	41%
Unfavorable	46	38	44	42	46
No Opinion	14	13	11	10	12

	GOP	Dem	Indep	$40K or Less	More/ $40K
Favorable	14%	76%	45%	48%	43%
Unfavorable	75	12	36	38	35
No Opinion	11	11	19	14	12

	Liberal	Moderate	Conserv	Pro- testant	Cath- olic
Favorable	73%	54%	17%	38%	49%
Unfavorable	17	31	70	47	39
No Opinion	10	15	13	14	11

	Ticket Splitters	Men	Women
Favorable	46%	42%	47%
Unfavorable	37	44	40
No Opinion	16	14	13

	White	Hispanic	African- American
Favorable	42%	48%	64%
Unfavorable	46	42	12
No Opinion	12	9	24

With these diametrically opposite popular ratings the ballot results show an electorate with little room for massive voter swings in either direction. Hence, no big bounces either way.

Presidential Ballot (Combined Vote and Lean)

	Total	East	Midwest	South	West
Bush	46.1%	35%	52%	51%	42%
Kerry	44.9	58	38	41	48
Nader	3.1	4	3	2	4
Firm Undec	5.9	4	7	6	6

	Red States	Blue States	Battlegd States	Battlegd Red	Battlegd Blue
Bush	51%	41%	46%	46%	46%
Kerry	39	50	44	45	43
Nader	3	4	4	4	4
Firm Undec	6	5	6	5	8

	Favorable Bush	Unfavbl Bush	Favorable Kerry	Unfavbl Kerry
Bush	88%	1%	9%	88%
Kerry	6	90	86	5
Nader	2	4	2	4
Firm Undec'd	4	5	2	3

	Republican	Democrat	Independent
Bush	87%	11%	41%
Kerry	9	81	43
Nader	2	2	7
Firm Undecided	2	6	9

	Liberal	Moderate	Conservative
Bush	16%	38%	76%
Kerry	74	55	16
Nader	5	2	4
Firm Undecided	5	6	5

	White	Hispanic	African- American
Bush	52%	42%	7%
Kerry	40	52	76
Nader	3	5	0
Firm Undecided	5	2	17

	Protestant	Catholic	Atheist/ Agnostic
Bush	53%	44%	20%
Kerry	38	50	67
Nader	2	2	11
Firm Undecided	6	4	2

	65 and Older	Men	Women
Bush	44%	47%	46%
Kerry	45	44	46
Nader	3	3	3
Firm Undecided	8	6	6

From these results it is very clear that, barring a major political event, there will be very little movement up or down in the short run. Instead the key will be to track gradual shifts at the margins over time. Not only will this be the longest general election in our history, but also the hardest fought and, once again, one of the closest. So for our Republican colleagues there is no reason to bail out, but rather to get in the trenches and work even harder.

Methodology

This national survey of political attitudes was conducted among 1000 likely general election voters between July 14-15, 2004. All interviews were conducted via telephone by professionally trained data collectors on McLaughlin & Associates' state-of-the art CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) system. Respondent selection was at random. This sample of 1000 likely general election voters has a margin of error of ±3.1% at a 95% confidence interval.

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