M&A POLL: AMERICANS SUPPORT UNITED JERUSALEM UNDER ISRAEL

To: Center for Jewish Community Studies
From:  McLaughlin & Associates
Re:  National Survey - Executive Summary
Date:  February 27, 2004

Summary

• The survey results clearly show that American voters, regardless of party affiliation, ideology, and religion, trust Israel in a peace agreement to protect the freedom of religion for all faiths and that Israel has the right to protect itself with defensible borders.
• Conversely, American voters don't trust the Palestinian Authority in any future agreement to protect the freedom of religion for all faiths.
• For that reason there is across-the-board support for Jerusalem remaining united under Israeli sovereignty.
• The survey results also illustrate that these key Middle Eastern issues are important presidential election issues and that the voters are more likely to support a candidate for president who stands by Israel's side in supporting a united Jerusalem and defensible borders for Israel.
  

Key Findings

The September 11th attacks have made the majority (58%) of American voters more sympathetic with Israel's struggle against suicide bombings and other forms of terrorism.

Specifically, over three-quarters (78%) of American Jewish voters are more sympathetic towards Israel and the results clearly show the majority of all American voters regardless of party, ideology or religion are more sympathetic with Israel's struggles against terrorism. In particular, this sentiment grows among Republicans, Independents, conservatives, Jewish voters, voters with a favorable opinion of President Bush, people voting for the Republican congressional candidate in their district and voters who are undecided on their vote for Congress.

"Did the September 11th attacks make you more sympathetic or less sympathetic with Israel's struggle against suicide bombings and other forms of terrorism?"

When given the facts, the majority (59%) of voters don't believe the Palestinian Authority can be trusted in a future agreement to protect freedom of religion for all faiths. This majority opinion of distrust is clear across the board. Specifically, the distrust of the Palestinian Authority protecting freedom of religion for all faiths significantly increases among Republicans, conservatives and Jewish voters. In relation to this year's elections, the results clearly show that the voter base of President Bush and Republican candidates for congress have a strong distrust of the Palestinian Authority.

"Between 1948 and 1967 Jordan controlled the holy sites of Jerusalem and did not permit freedom of worship to all faiths. Since 1967 Israel has controlled the holy sites of Jerusalem and has permitted freedom of worship. Do you think the Palestinian Authority can be trusted in a future agreement to protect freedom of religion for all faiths?"

Nearly three-quarters (73%) of all voters agree that "under a future Arab-Israeli agreement, Jerusalem should remain united under Israeli sovereignty, with freedom of religion for Christians, Muslims, Jews and all other faiths." Only 9% disagree with that statement. Clearly, American voters trust Israel over the Palestinian Authority to protect freedom of religion. This voter opinion is strongest among Republicans, conservatives, Jewish voters, people who have a favorable opinion of President Bush and people voting for the Republican congressional candidate in their district. Certainly, President Bush and Republicans running for congress would help maximize their base in this year's elections by supporting a proposal that keeps Jerusalem under Israeli sovereignty in any future Arab-Israeli agreement.

"Do you agree or disagree with the following statement?  'Under a future Arab-Israeli peace agreement, Jerusalem should remain united under Israeli sovereignty, with freedom of religion for Christians, Muslims, Jews and all other faiths.' "

After hearing the facts, 3 in 5 (60%) voters are less trusting of giving the Christian holy sites of Jerusalem to the Palestinians. This majority sentiment crosses all voter segments and reiterates the clear distrust of the Palestinian Authority.

"Since the start of the Palestinian Intifada, the Tomb of Joseph in Nablus, the Church of the Nativity in Bethlehem, and the ancient synagogue of Jericho were ransacked or desecrated by the Palestinians. Have these events made you more trusting or less trusting of giving the Christian holy sites of Jerusalem to the Palestinians?"

In regard to any future peace agreement, the majority (54%) of all voters believe that Israel should be entitled to defensible borders, while only 16% think Israel should be forced to return to the boundaries of 1967. The majority support of Israel's right to defensible borders increases among Republicans, conservatives and Jewish voters. Specifically, other than among Jewish voters, the support for Israel's right to defensible borders is strongest among President Bush's voter pool (voters who have a favorable opinion of President Bush) and people voting for Republican congressional candidates.

"Do you agree with the position that in any future peace agreement, Israel should be entitled to defensible borders OR do you agree with the position that Israel should be forced to return to the boundaries of 1967, when Israel was eight miles wide at its narrowest point and came under attack?"

The majority (52%) of all voters would be more likely to support a presidential candidate who stood by Israel's side in supporting a united Jerusalem and defensible borders for Israel. Only 13% would be less likely to support such a candidate. These results indicate that standing by Israel in supporting a united Jerusalem and defensible borders for Israel is an important presidential election issue that can garner voter support for a candidate. The voter support increases among Republicans, conservatives, Jewish voters, voters with a favorable opinion of President Bush and people voting for Republican congressional candidates. President Bush and Republican congressional candidates have a great opportunity to maximize and expand their voting base.

"Would you be more likely or less likely to support a presidential candidate who stood by Israel's side in supporting a united Jerusalem and defensible borders for Israel?"

Methodology

This national survey of 1,000 likely American voters was conducted on February 23-24, 2004. All interviews were conducted via telephone by professional interviewers. Respondent selection was at random within predetermined geographical units, which reflect actual voter distributions in a Presidential election. The accuracy of this survey of 1,000 likely American voters is ±3.1% at the 95% confidence interval.

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