This article appeared in the 3 Nov 2003 issue of The Polling Report.

TOTAL RECALL
by John McLaughlin

California's voters have once again made history. With the historic recall and the election of Arnold Schwarzenegger as governor, they have chosen to change the political direction of their state and will once again affect the national political landscape for some time to come.

Our firm is proud to have been part of the team, providing strategic benchmark polling and message testing for the Schwarzenegger campaign. It was an amazing team that included-in addition to an exceptional candidate-Mike Murphy and Don Sipple, two of America's premier media strategists, presidential pollster Jan van Lohuizen, who did tracking, and a solid campaign organization built by campaign manager Bob White.

What was truly amazing about all this was that prior to Arnold's TV announcement on Jay Leno's Tonight Show, no campaign existed. Except for the vision and desire of Arnold and his wife Maria, there was no strategy, no tactics and no organization. Within a matter of days or hours this would all have to be created from scratch against very skilled political opponents in the largest media state in the nation, while the media from the whole world was watching.

Our role was simple: Prepare a benchmark under the guidance of Don Sipple and Mike Murphy to set the winning strategy. Easier said than done.

Just the basic idea of polling in this historic election had to be examined from the fundamentals, to determine what would be most accurate in this unique election. What's the turnout model? If they vote No on recall, would voters drop off or vote for a replacement? How do you most accurately ask the ballot with 135 candidates on the slate? How do you model for absentee mail-ins? What legal challenges could change the process, let alone the scheduled election?

Also, the campaign would be more of a European-style election than a traditional Republican vs. Democrat ballot battle. From the minute the recall qualified, the election would be a series of contests within the contest. Would the Yes to recall vote prevail? On the replacement ballot who would emerge as the leading Democrat? Who would be the leading Republican? Would there be a significant independent candidate?

Running the Political Gauntlet

From the start Arnold Schwarzenegger was a historic celebrity candidate in a historic media-driven election. Media polls showed that Arnold's dramatic entry into the race gave the Yes on recall vote an enormous boost and placed him initially in the frontrunner replacement spot-but that would soon turn out to be political no-man's land and too hard to hold. Instead, a winning strategy needed to be devised that would endure as the days ticked away in this rapid campaign.

It was our hypothesis for the strategic framework that since Lt. Governor Cruz Bustamante was the only significant Democrat candidate to enter the race he would automatically become the new frontrunner by taking advantage of California's pro-Democratic political demographics. With a 10 point Democrat-to-Republican registration edge, 45% to 35%, and a growing Latino vote, Bustamante's opportunity to win as the only major Democrat in the race was very real.

In contrast, there would be a virtual primary in the media among the Republicans to coalesce the Republican anti-Davis vote. In addition, we had to allow no major independent to emerge as a viable candidate. So with several major Republicans and independents in the race dividing the anti-Davis vote, Arnold would have to carefully run the political gauntlet.

Don Sipple and Mike Murphy wisely chose to let the political environment settle before we did our benchmark poll. While media polls were showing Arnold behind with five weeks to go, we knew we were in a dead heat with 28 days to go. Our benchmark showed that we were tied with Cruz Bustamante, 25% to 25%, with Tom McClintock at 15% and Peter Ueberroth at 5%. No other candidate was above 3% and the undecided vote was at 22%.

Over the next four weeks Arnold would have to siphon votes from the undecideds, Ueberroth and McClintock. Bustamante was leading us among moderates, 29% to 22%, with 24% undecided. Among conservatives, Arnold narrowly led McClintock 37% to 30%. Arnold was getting only 42% of the Republican vote to McClintock's 28%. Bustamante led among Democrats, 47% to Arnold's 12%, with 24% undecided. Among independents, the largest share was undecided, at 32%, with Arnold leading at 21%. In order to win, Arnold would need to maximize his vote among Republicans and conservatives, win among moderates and independents, and take a share of swing Democrats.

The opportunity for swing Democrats clearly existed among minority voters. Bustamante was leading among Latinos, but barely, at 31% to Arnold's 29%, and among African Americans, at only 42% to 15%. If Arnold could keep this vote it would be a huge victory.

Among men, Arnold led 28% to 22% to 16%, over Bustamante and McClintock respectively. Among women, Bustamante led 27% to 23%, with McClintock at 14%. The lead with men needed to be widened and the vote with women needed to be won.

One-On-One

But in this crowded multi-multi-candidate field there were some pretty big public opinion numbers upon which to build a successful strategy. The strategy was simple to move our ballot share up from 25%.

Gray Davis was very unpopular, with only a 24% favorable rating and a whopping 62% unfavorable rating. Every vote Arnold would possibly get existed in that 62% unfavorable rating. However, Schwarzenegger was getting only 34% of the Davis unfavorables to vote for him. We needed to make it a one-on-one race between Davis and Arnold by presenting positive, optimistic change, free of special interest influence.

The next biggest number was the 54% for Yes on the recall, while the No vote totaled only 38%. Almost every vote we could get existed in that Yes vote as well. However, Arnold was receiving only 41% of the vote among those who were voting Yes for recall. We needed the decisive majority of that vote. The strategic path was simple to connect us with the majority of voters by asking them to vote Yes on recall and Yes for Arnold.

A third big strategic number was Cruz Bustamante's unfavorable rating, which was just short of Davis' unpopularity. One month out, Bustamante had a 47% unfavorable rating to only a 33% favorable rating. The reason for the unpopularity was simple: two-thirds of the voters, 65%, believed that Bustamante was either somewhat close or very close to Davis. Forcing Bustamante to distance himself from Davis and his policies would benefit us.

A fourth dynamic needed to be increased. Although we were tied on the ballot with Bustamante, when the voters were asked who would win, Arnold led Bustamante 31% to 25%, with only 5% thinking McClintock would win. Reinforcing the perception that Arnold had the best chance to win would allow us to siphon up more votes from other candidates and the undecideds.

Character

How would we do this? Arnold was a strong character candidate. Six out of 10 voters could cite a verbatim that they liked most about Arnold Schwarzenegger, and at a ratio of 5 to 1 they cited personality traits rather than issues. Certainly he was known as an actor, but other leading responses included: honest, sincere, not a politician, fresh face, new blood, effective, can't be bought, and would bring change.

In contrast, his only major negative was the flip side of him being the outsider-having no government experience. Arnold's character strengths would be emphasized, and his perceived weakness would be negated by his popular issue positions.

Once again, Arnold had big public opinion numbers on his side:

• By a margin of 61% to 28%, voters preferred cutting spending to tax increases to balance the budget.
• 67% agreed that it's time California's Indian casinos pay their fair share of taxes.
• 66% favored an independent audit, by an outside auditor, to identify wasteful spending and suggest ways to cut state spending.
• 62% favored a new state constitutional amendment to limit annual state spending increases to no more than the rate of inflation and population growth, unless the additional spending is approved by a two-thirds vote of the state legislature.
• 64% approved creating a friendlier environment to attract small businesses and jobs to California by reforming workers compensation insurance.
• 70% disapproved allowing illegal immigrants to obtain a California driver's license.

With these popular positions and strategic dynamics in place, Don Sipple and Mike Murphy created a paid and earned media campaign to drive home these messages. The election result and media exit polls show precisely how successful the campaign was in the execution of its strategy. The Yes on recall was 55% to 45%, and Arnold won 48% to 32% on the ballot.

Exit polling showed that Arnold's campaign accomplished its objectives, winning 74% of the Republicans, winning among independents with 44% to Bustamante's 28%, and taking 18% of the Democrats. Democrat defectors were most significant where Arnold won 31% of the Latino vote to Bustamante's 52%, and we took 17% of the African American vote. Schwarzenegger beat McClintock among conservatives 67% to 20% and he won among moderates 50% to Bustamante's 31%. Arnold even took 20% of the liberals. The gender gap was merely the percentage by which Arnold won. Among men, Arnold routed Bustamante 49% to 32%, and he came from behind to win decisively among women, 43% to 36%.
Governor-elect Arnold Schwarzenegger made history. Our polling is merely testimony to the success of this historic campaign. We look forward to his continued success.

John McLaughlin is CEO and a partner at the Republican polling firm McLaughlin & Associates.

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