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MISSILE
DEFENSE: MOST
AMERICANS HAVE FALSE
SENSE OF SECURITY
To:
New Atlantic Initiative
From: McLaughlin & Associates
Re: Missile Defense - Majority of Voters Have False Sense
of Security
Date: December 17, 2001
Summary:
President
Bush's decision to withdraw from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty
does come with public support. An October national survey among
1,000 likely voters indicates the voting public believes that the ABM
Treaty should be scrapped to allow the United States to build a missile
defense system. Aside from the ABM Treaty, the American public overwhelmingly
supports the United States effort to develop a missile defense system
to guard the nation from missile attacks from Iraq, Iran, and other terrorist
states.
In light
of the September 11th terrorist attacks, Americans see terrorists like
Osama bin Laden as major national security threats. Almost all Americans
believe Osama bin Laden or terrorists like him would launch a missile
at America if they had the ability.
The issue
of building a missile defense does have political election ramifications.
Three in five likely voters are more likely to vote for a candidate for
U.S. Senate or Congress who supports building a missile defense system.
Conversely, the majority of likely voters are less likely to vote for
a candidate for U.S. Senate or Congress who opposes building a missile
defense system.
Key Findings:
Even though
the United States does not currently have a missile defense system, the
majority (57%) is under the false impression that we do.
| "Do
you think that the United States has a missile defense system capable
of shooting down missiles launched at America?" |
|
Total |
| Yes |
56.6% |
| No |
28.7% |
| DK/Refused |
14.7% |
|
More than
three-quarters (77%) of likely voters think the United States should develop
a missile defense system to guard the nation from missile attacks from
Iraq, Iran, and other terrorist states. Only 16% of the voters now
think the United States should not build a missile defense system.
The strong support for a missile defense system cuts across ideological,
party, and gender lines. The support becomes even stronger among
conservatives, Republicans, and women.
| "At
present, it is a fact that the United States does not have
a missile defense system. Knowing this, should the United States
develop a missile defense system to guard the nation from missile
attacks from Iraq, Iran, and other terrorist states?" |
|
Total |
| Yes |
76.7% |
| No |
16.0% |
| DK/Refused |
7.3% |
|
|
Liberal |
Moderate |
Conservative |
Republican |
| Yes |
70.5% |
73.1% |
83.1% |
82.3% |
| No |
22.1% |
18.8% |
10.4% |
12.5% |
| DK/Refused |
7.4% |
8.1% |
6.6% |
5.2% |
|
Democrat |
Independent |
Men |
Women |
| Yes |
72.6% |
75.2% |
73.1% |
80.0% |
| No |
20.5% |
15.2% |
20.4% |
11.9% |
| DK/Refused |
6.8% |
9.5% |
6.5% |
8.1% |
|
Nearly 9
in 10 (88%) believe that terrorists like Osama bin Laden would launch
a missile at an American city if they had the ability.
| "If
terrorists like Osama bin Laden had the ability to launch a missile
at American cities, do you think they would launch it at an American
city? " |
|
Total |
| Yes |
88.3% |
| No |
6.8% |
| DK/Refused |
4.9% |
|
Two-thirds
(67%) of all likely voters think the ABM Treaty should be scrapped to
allow the United States to build a missile defense system. Only
1 in 5 (21%) disagree and believe the treaty should be kept the same.
The majority support to scrap the treaty and allow the United States to
build a missile defense system is evident among all key voting segments.
The support is strongest among conservatives and Republicans. Men
and women equally support the idea.
| "Since
the 1970s, the United States and Russia have abided by the Anti-Ballistic
Missile Treaty, which prohibits the U.S. and Russia from building
a missile defense system to defend from incoming missile attacks.
In your opinion, should the ABM Treaty be kept as is, or scrapped
to allow the U.S. to build a missile defense system?" |
|
Total |
| Kept
As Is |
21.3% |
| Scrapped |
66.6% |
| DK/Refused |
12.1% |
|
|
Liberal |
Moderate |
Conservative |
Republican |
| Kept
As Is |
35.0% |
22.6% |
11.5% |
10.6% |
| Scrapped |
54.8% |
63.2% |
78.1% |
80.7% |
| DK/Refused |
10.1% |
14.2% |
10.4% |
8.7% |
|
Democrat |
Independent |
Men |
Women |
| Kept
As Is |
31.5% |
24.8% |
24.8% |
18.1% |
| Scrapped |
53.7% |
66.2% |
66.7% |
66.5% |
| DK/Refused |
14.8% |
9.0% |
8.5% |
15.4% |
|
The survey
results clearly illustrate that the issue of missile defense could be
a deciding factor in upcoming elections. Those who support a missile
defense system would become a more attractive candidate to the voters.
Conversely, taking a stance against a missile defense system could become
a liability that costs a candidate an election.
More than
3 in 5 (63%) voters would be more likely to vote for a candidate for U.S.
Senate or Congress who supports building a missile defense system (only
9%) would be less likely). The majority sentiment to be more likely
to vote for a candidate who supports building a missile defense system
is evident across all key voting groups, particularly among conservatives,
Republicans, and women.
| "Would
you be more likely or less likely to vote for a candidate for U.S.
Senate or Congress who supports building a missile defense
system to protect the nation from missile attack from terrorists and
other nations? If it would make no difference, just say
so." |
|
Total |
| More
Likely |
63.4% |
| Less
LIkely |
9.3% |
| No
Difference |
22.3% |
| DK/Refused |
5.0% |
|
|
Liberal |
Moderate |
Conservative |
Republican |
| More
LIkely |
58.1% |
57.3% |
74.0% |
73.3% |
| Less
Likely |
18.4% |
9.7% |
4.4% |
4.9% |
| No
Difference |
18.9% |
27.4% |
18.6% |
18.8% |
| DK/Refused |
4.6% |
5.6% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
|
Democrat |
Independent |
Men |
Women |
| More
Likely |
56.7% |
58.1% |
61.7% |
65.0% |
| Less
Likely |
14.8% |
9.0% |
9.8% |
8.8% |
| No
Difference |
21.6% |
29.5% |
26.0% |
18.8% |
| DK/Refused |
6.8% |
3.3% |
2.5% |
7.3% |
|
The majority
(55%) is less likely to vote for a candidate for U.S. Senate or Congress
who opposes building a missile defense system (only 14%) would be more
likely). The "less likely to vote" response strengthens
among conservatives and Republicans.
| "Would
you be more likely or less likely to vote for a candidate for U.S.
Senate or Congress who opposes building a missile defense system
to protect the nation from missile attack from terrorists and other
nations? If it would make no difference, just say so." |
|
Total |
| More
Likely |
13.9% |
| Less
LIkely |
55.3% |
| No
Difference |
25.2% |
| DK/Refused |
5.6% |
|
|
Liberal |
Moderate |
Conservative |
Republican |
| More
LIkely |
23.5% |
15.1% |
8.2% |
9.5% |
| Less
Likely |
51.2% |
46.8% |
67.8% |
64.6% |
| No
Difference |
20.3% |
31.7% |
20.5% |
21.8% |
| DK/Refused |
5.1% |
6.5% |
3.6% |
4.1% |
|
Democrat |
Independent |
Men |
Women |
| More
Likely |
19.2% |
13.8% |
14.0% |
13.8% |
| Less
Likely |
49.6% |
50.5% |
55.6% |
55.0% |
| No
Difference |
24.9% |
31.0% |
27.1% |
23.5% |
| DK/Refused |
6.3% |
4.8% |
3.3% |
7.7% |
|
Methodology:
This
national survey of political attitudes was conducted on October 12-15,
2001 among 1,000 likely voters.
All interviews
were conducted by professional interviewers via telephone. Interview
selection was at random within predetermined election units. These
units were structured to statistically correlate with actual voter distributions
in statewide general elections.
The accuracy
of this national survey of 1,000 likely voters is within ±3.1% at a 95%
confidence interval.
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