NATIONAL SURVEY SHOWS SLIGHT DECLINE IN BUSH'S POPULARITY

May 25, 2001

CONTACT:  McLaughlin & Associates
  CHARLIE BANKS, Data Specialist
   cbanks@mclaughlinonline.com (845/353-4700)

NATIONAL MEDIA RELEASE

Comparing President Bush's personal favorability ratings with our last released national survey of January 28, 2001, it appears that there has been some erosion in his popularity.

Although President Bush maintains a good favorability rating among voters, with a 5 to 3 positive-to-negative ratio (54.4% favorable to 32.6% unfavorable), this represents a net decline of 10% since January.

There may have been higher ratings in between these polls, but comparing the January 28 results among various voter groups shows a more significant net decline among Midwesterners, Western voters, conservatives, pro-life voters, Democrats and independents, lower-income voters (under $40,000 a year), Catholics, and women.

Pollster John McLaughlin summarized the results by saying, "It appears that rising energy concerns and the defection of liberal Sen. Jim Jeffords may have reduced the President's popularity this week, which is a shame because it eclipsed the President's tax cut victory in the media.

"Although President Bush has a very strong partisan base among Republicans, his ratings among conservatives and pro-life voters show signs of erosion.  Certainly the drop in the President's favorables and rise in unfavorables among Democrats and independents is cause for concern.  However, the same drop in favorables and rise in unfavorables among conservatives and pro-life voters shows that the prescriptions for the President to abandon popular conservative positions to appease liberals like Jeffords are very wrong.

"Right now, the President needs to regain control of the public political debate, focus it back on his popular agenda, and cross-pressure liberals like Ted Kennedy and Jim Jeffords away from more moderate Democrats.  If the President does this, the pressure for the mid-term elections will be on those incumbent Democrats who are up for re-election next year.

"We may be at a point in the President's political strategy where his advisors will have to decide whether his model for success is to protect his base and win the middle like Reagan, or build favorables with people who as liberal Democrats will ultimately vote against the President and his agenda.  Although Senator Jeffords chose to side with Ted Kennedy, most Americans will choose President Bush if he sticks to principle."

(Click here to download/view a more comprehensive comparison of relevant demographics, viewable in Microsoft Excel 2000 for Windows.)

Methodology: Both of these national surveys of political attitudes were conducted by professional interviewers via telephone.  Interview selection was at random within predetermined election units.  These units were structured to correlate statistically with actual voter distributions in statewide general elections.

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