POST-ELECTION ANALYSIS
Bush's Challenge:  It's the Economy Again!

December 22, 2000

CONTACT:  John McLaughlin & Associates
  CHARLIE BANKS, Data Specialist
   cbanks@mclaughlinonline.com (845/353-4700)

NATIONAL MEDIA RELEASE

Probably the most underreported finding of the major post-election surveys was the impact of the economy on the presidential election, and the coming economic pessimism among voters (which November 7 findings are now bearing out in light of the sagging economy).

Lost in all the battles over the presidential recount and post-election spin were two very important findings in the Voter News Service election day exit poll of over 13,000 voters nationally, and our own post-election survey of 1,000 voters nationally.

The first finding was that the economy, as a current issue, hurt Al Gore's chances of winning the election.

Although early political models had forecast a Gore victory, it appears those models were fatally flawed in their predictions of a continued good economy.

Just as Federal Reserve Chairman Arthur Burns may have hurt Vice President Nixon's campaign in 1960 and Alan Greenspan may have hurt President Bush's re-election in 1992, Greenspan's six interest rate hikes over the past 18 months contributed to a flattening economy just when Gore needed help most.

Another hurdle for Gore was President Clinton's rigid opposition to any new tax cuts that might have renewed economic growth.

In the VNS exit poll, when asked about their "family's financial situation," only one-half of all voters — just 50% — said "better."  Gore needed that number to be higher, even though these voters voted almost 2 to 1 for him.

In contrast, almost 4 in 10 voters (38%) said their financial situation "stayed the same," and another 1 in 9 voters (11%) said their situation was "worse."  Both of these groups voted 2 to 1 for George W. Bush.

Clearly half of the more than 100 million Americans who went to the polls November 7 were not content and wanted to do better financially; most of them gave their votes to Bush.

Family's Financial Situation
	Total	Voted Gore	Voted Bush
Better	50%	61 %	36 %
Worse	11%	33 %	63 %
Same	38%	35 %	60 %

(Source:  VNS Election Day exit polls, as relayed by CNN.com)

Back on November 7, when VNS asked the voters about the "economy a year from now," only one in five voters (19%) said that it would be better, and they voted almost 3 to 1 for Gore. This group was far too small for Gore to win.

In contrast, a huge majority of the voters - two-thirds (66%) - said that the economy would be worse a year from now, and the majority of those voters chose Bush over Gore.

Only one in eight voters (12%) said the economy would be the same, and they voted 2 to 1 for Bush.

Economic pessimism helped elect George W. Bush, and Al Gore's campaigning on the economy when it had already flattened under Clinton and Greenspan appears to have lacked credibility with the voters.

Economy a Year from Now
	Total	Voted Gore	Voted Bush
Better	19%	70 %	26 %
Worse	66%	45 %	52 %
Same	12%	33 %	62 %
Poor	2%	33 %	58 %

(Source:  VNS Election Day exit polls, as relayed by CNN.com)

In the economy of 20 years ago, as interest rates rose, voters could earn more interest when their savings and wealth were in savings accounts and CD's.  Today, however, 7 in 10 of the more than 100 million Americans who went to the polls in the millenium election say that they own stocks, and the majority of these voters voted for Bush.  Only 3 in 10 voters said that they do not own stocks, and a majority of these voters preferred Gore.

Clearly, investor-class voters of the new economy who had, earlier this year, seen their wealth and investment savings reach record levels, were now receiving statements telling them that their wealth and savings had declined.  Al Gore was hurt by the ensuing political fallout.

Do You Own Stocks?
	Total	Voted Gore	Voted Bush
Yes	70%	46 %	51 %
No	30%	52 %	44 %

(Source:  VNS Election Day exit polls, as relayed by CNN.com)

The second major finding was that George W. Bush's plan for across-the-board tax cuts gave him a decisive edge among the majority of voters.

Once again, it appears from our own election day poll of over 1,000 voters nationwide that public opinion was ahead of the political pundits.  Clearly the majority of Americans saw the need for renewed economic growth, and by a decisive 5-to-4 majority (52% to 40%) more voters approved of Bush's across-the-board federal income tax cut.  More important:  if they approved of the tax cut, they voted 4 to 1 for Bush (80% to 18%).

"Do you approve or disapprove of George W. Bush's proposal for an across-the-board federal income tax cut?"

	Total	Voted Gore	Voted Bush
Approve	52%	18 %	80 %
Strongly Approve	31%
Somewhat Approve	21%
Disapprove	40%	85 %	10 %
Somewhat Disapprove	13%
Strongly Disapprove	27%
Don't Know/Refused	8%

(Source:  John McLaughlin & Associates 11/7/00 poll of 1,000 voters nationally)

Conclusion:  The most important untold story of this election was how the Clinton-Greenspan economic policies to slow the economy backfired, and flattened Al Gore along with the economy.

Now, as President Clinton leaves office, he leaves behind an economy which the voters believe is getting worse.  The legacy that President Clinton leaves his successor is, "It's the economy, again."

Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, and Happy New Year from John McLaughlin & Associates!

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