PANHANDLE POLL SUMMARY
Networks' Wrong Florida Call for Gore Cost Bush Votes

November 20, 2000

CONTACT:  John McLaughlin & Associates
  STUART POLK, Senior Analyst:
    spolk@mclaughlinonline.com (703/518-4445)
  CHARLIE BANKS, Data Specialist:
    cbanks@mclaughlinonline.com (845/353-4700)

NATIONAL MEDIA RELEASE

Summary:  A survey conducted by John McLaughlin & Associates found that the early and incorrect news network announcements declaring Al Gore the winner in Florida may have influenced thousands of last-minute voters in the Central Time Zone section of the Florida Panhandle not to vote.  The premature announcement discouraged many registered voters who, according to our survey's results, would have voted like the rest of their neighbors - overwhelmingly for George W. Bush.

George W. Bush carried the Central Time Zone section of Florida with two-thirds of the vote (Bush 67% to Gore 31%).

However, there were approximately 187,000 registered voters in this area of the Panhandle who did not vote in this election.  Similar to the actual results of this election, among the registered voters who did not vote, this poll shows that Bush would have received about two-thirds of their vote.

The survey found that 15% of the registered non-voters did not vote because the networks declared Gore the winner in Florida before the polls closed.  About 6 in 10 of all voters and non-voters believe that the networks' call influenced people not to vote.

Two thirds of all voters and 55% of those who did not vote said that they heard the network call for Al Gore before the polls closed, and 13% of all voters and 23% of non-voters claim that the network call made them less likely to vote.

If only a few thousand of these disenfranchised registered voters had heard that the polls were still open, and the race in Florida was still too close to call, and then voted, George W. Bush would have gained a decisive net positive margin of votes over Al Gore.  These votes would have helped Bush carry the popular vote statewide without uncertainty.

Key Findings:

• Among registered voters who did not vote, 15% said that the news reports about Al Gore winning Florida influenced them not to vote for President.

  "Did the news reports about Al Gore winning Florida influence you not to vote for President?"
  (Only asked to registered non-voters.)

  Yes	15.0 %
  No	83.0 %
  Don't Know/Refused	2.0 %

• Among registered voters who did not vote, 64% would have voted for George W. Bush and 23% would have voted for Al Gore.

  "If you would have voted for President, for whom would you have voted:  Al Gore, the Democrat candidate; George W. Bush, the Republican candidate; Ralph Nader, the Green Party candidate; Pat Buchanan, the Reform Party candidate; or someone else?"
  (Only asked to registered non-voters.)

  George W. Bush	64.0 %
  Al Gore	23.0 %
  Ralph Nader	0.0 %
  Pat Buchanan	1.0 %
  Someone Else	4.0 %
  Don't Know/Refused	8.0 %

• Close to half of all registered voters said the Election Day media coverage before the polls closed favored Al Gore.  Only 17.1% said the media coverage favored George W. Bush.

  "In your opinion, did the Election Day media coverage before the polls closed in your area favor George W. Bush or Al Gore?"

  Favored Al Gore	45.8 %
  Favored George W. Bush	17.1 %
  Favored Neither	13.7 %
  Don't Know/Refused	23.4 %

• Three in five registered voters believe that the news networks influenced people not to vote because they declared the presidential winner in Florida before the polls were closed.

  "As you may know, news networks declared Al Gore the winner in Florida before the polls closed in the Central Standard Time zone of the Panhandle.  Do you believe that the news networks influenced people not to vote because they declared the presidential winner in Florida before the polls were closed?"

  Yes	59.6 %
  No	29.7 %
  Don't Know/Refused	10.7 %

• Regardless of the recount for President in Florida, more than 3 in 5 believe George W. Bush actually won the vote in Florida.

  "Regardless of the current recount for President, who do you believe actually won the vote in the state of Florida, Al Gore or George W. Bush?"

  George W. Bush	63.4 %
  Al Gore	18.4 %
  Don't Know/Refused	18.2 %

• A clear majority of the registered voters, 58.0%, believe that if Palm Beach County or any other Florida county is allowed to vote again for President, then the Florida area in the Central Standard Time zone should be allowed to vote again because the media networks incorrectly called Al Gore the winner in Florida before the polls were closed.

  "If Palm Beach County or any other Florida County is allowed to vote again for President, do you believe that the Florida counties in the Central Standard Time zone should be allowed to vote again because the media networks incorrectly called Al Gore the winner in Florida before the polls were closed?"

  Yes	58.0 %
  No	37.0 %
  Don't Know/Refused	5.0 %

Methodology:  This survey of political attitudes was conducted on November 15 and 16, 2000, among 676 registered voters in the Central Standard Time zone of the Florida Panhandle, and weighted to reflect actual turnout and results in this region for greater accuracy.

All interviews were conducted by professional interviewers via telephone.  Interview selection was random within predetermined election units.  These units were structured to correlate with actual voter distributions in this recent election.

The accuracy of this survey is +/- 4.0% at a 95% confidence interval.

You may download a compressed file containing a topline with crosstabs (Microsoft Word for Windows) and table of breakdowns (Microsoft Excel for Windows) for this survey by clicking on this link.  The file requires WinZip for Windows to decompress.

Update 12/6/00:  Further statistics detailing voter turnout rates show the news network's premature Florida call depressed voter turnout in the Florida Panhandle.

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