PRESIDENTIAL RACE IS TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Generic Congressional Ballot Advantage Captured by G.O.P.

September 18, 2000

CONTACT:  John McLaughlin & Associates
  STUART POLK, Senior Analyst
   spolk@mclaughlinonline.com (703/518-4445)
  CHARLIE BANKS, Data Specialist
   cbanks@mclaughlinonline.com (845/353-4700)

NATIONAL MEDIA RELEASE

Presidential Ballot:

The latest national survey conducted by John McLaughlin & Associates shows Texas Governor George W. Bush and Vice President Al Gore are in a statistical dead heat in the race for President.  Among 1,000 likely voters surveyed from September 15-17, 2000, Vice President Gore was the candidate of choice for 45.8% of those polled, while 43.7% chose Governor Bush.  6.0% of those polled were undecided.  Other candidates included on the ballot were Pat Buchanan, the Reform Party candidate (1.4%), and Ralph Nader, the Green Party candidate (3.1%).  This poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.1%, at a 95% confidence interval.

Bush holds overwhelming leads within his ideological base (70.3% of conservatives, 84.4% of Republicans).  However, Gore takes 53.9% of moderates in this poll, and independents are evenly split (41.4% for Gore, 40.4% for Bush).  Bush would be well advised to force Gore further leftward.  Bush cannot win without appealing to moderates and independents, but he cannot afford to move any further away from his natural ideological territory without running the risk of Republicans and conservatives either abstaining or casting protest votes for Buchanan.

Generic Congressional Ballot:

In an important turnaround for Republican Congressional candidates, likely voters polled chose a generic Republican candidate for Congress in their district over a Democrat candidate by a thin margin of 44.3% to 42.8%.  Democrats outpolled Republican candidates just five weeks earlier by a considerable edge of 45.2% to 37.6%.  Notably, Republicans running for Congress now have a competitive edge among independents, seniors, men, economic voters, middle-income voters, ticket splitters, Protestants, and Catholics.

In light of Gore's recent advantage in public opinion polls, the shift toward Republican Congressional candidates could be a sign of fear among voters that they may need a Republican check in Congress against a Gore Administration.

Other Key National Survey Findings:

• There is a great deal of shifting over the last three months in the proportion of likely voters nationwide who express a preference between smaller and bigger government.  The preference throughout this period has remained in smaller government's favor, but the margin between the two choices has bounced from 31.4% in June to 11.4% in August to 22.2% now.  Such volatility of opinion on this issue, not seen in over a decade, could signal a fundamental ideological shift in the electorate in this realignment year.  Expect the size and scope of government to be a pivotal underlying issue in the remaining few weeks of the campaign.
• After faltering among economic-issue voters in our August survey, Bush has regained the upper hand among this group, consistently the plurality of issue voters in recent polls.
• The surge in popularity that Bill Clinton enjoyed in our August survey has evaporated.  Voters have recovered their overall negative impression of Bill Clinton, and he could yet be a liability to Gore and other Democrat candidates.
• Bush's standing among social-issue voters has dropped precipitously; his health care and education messages have still not caught on with voters.  Add this to the historical advantage Democrats have had in this area, and Bush will have an uphill battle ahead of him unless he can narrow Gore's lead on these issues.

This national survey was conducted from September 15-17, 2000, among 1,000 voters who are likely to vote in the November elections for President and U.S. Congress.

All interviews were conducted by professional interviewers via telephone.  Interview selection was at random within predetermined regions.  These regions were structured to correlate statistically with actual voter distributions in general elections for President.

The accuracy of this survey of 1,000 likely general election voters is within +/- 3.1% at a 95% confidence interval.

Please contact Stuart Polk (703/518-4445) or Charlie Banks (845/353-4700) if you have any questions regarding the national survey results.

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