BUSH HOLDS A 6.6-POINT LEAD OVER GORE
Maintains Advantages for Governor Among Independents, Boomers, Seniors, and Women

August 11, 2000

CONTACT:  John McLaughlin & Associates, (845) 353-4700
  CHIP MERTZ, Vice President
   cmertz@mclaughlinonline.com
  CHARLIE BANKS, Data Specialist
   cbanks@mclaughlinonline.com

NATIONAL MEDIA RELEASE

The latest national survey conducted by John McLaughlin & Associates, polling 929 likely voters from August 6-10, 2000, shows Texas Governor George W. Bush still leading Vice President Al Gore in the race for President by 44.6% to 38.0% among likely voters. Among registered voters, Bush leads Gore 44.4% to 38.3%; among adults, Bush leads Gore 43.9% to 38.1%. This poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.2%, at a 95% confidence interval.

Other Key National Survey Findings:

• A prime reason for the closing of this race which cannot be overlooked must be Al Gore's renewed emphasis on economics.  Prior to our last published national poll of likely voters, taken June 5th, George W. Bush's tax cut plan and Social Security plan gave him a solid edge among economic issue voters, 51% to 34%.  Subsequent to that poll, Gore claimed credit for the economy, flip-flopped on taxes and Social Security, and launched a $25-million soft-money campaign targeted at Bush and the Republicans.  The result:  Bush and Gore are now tied among economic issue voters, at 41% each.
• President Clinton has had a dramatic surge in his net favorability, up 20 points from a 41.3% favorable/49.3% unfavorable rating in June to 52.2% favorable/39.8% unfavorable now.
• Even more dramatic has been Al Gore's surge in net favorability.  Gore's ratings have risen from 41.9% favorable/42.2% unfavorable in June to 56.7% favorable/31.5% unfavorable at present.
• Since our June 5th poll, it appears that many more Americans are paying attention to the election.  Our sample reflects a demographic increase in moderates, voters who say economic issues are their greatest concern, and voters who favor larger government over smaller.  This sample of likely voters has fewer Republicans, conservatives, social- and moral-issue voters, and voters who favor smaller government.
• Despite this shift, George W. Bush holds leads over Al Gore among independents (41.0% to 26.7%), baby-boomers (42.0% to 38.8%), senior citizens (48.4 to 34.8), and women (44.2% to 38.5%).
• George W. Bush also has a positive-to-negative favorability ratio of 2 to 1 among likely voters, the highest of all four leading candidates (60.7% favorable to 31.2% unfavorable, with 7.6% having no opinion of him).
• A solid plurality (43.7%) of likely voters are concerned with economic issues such as taxes, government spending, and jobs. One in five (22.7%) are most concerned with social issues such as education, health care, and the environment. One in six (13.5%) are concerned with moral issues such as abortion, school prayer, and promoting traditional values. Roughly the same number are concerned with local issues (13.3%) such as crime, drugs, and welfare, and 3.4% were concerned with foreign policy and national defense issues.
• Among likely voters, 6 in 10 (63.0%) regularly use an Internet service or email on their computer.
• Likely voters are evenly split on whether the country is moving in the right or wrong direction, with 44.5% saying the country is moving in the right direction, and 44.7% saying the wrong direction.

  All interviews were conducted by professional interviewers via telephone. Interview selection was at random within predetermined election units. These units were structured to correlate statistically with actual voter distributions in general elections for President.

  Please contact Chip Mertz or Charlie Banks by email or at (845) 353-4700 if you have any questions regarding the national survey results.

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