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Republican Presidential Primary 2012 - No Strong Front Runner -11/14/08
Major Findings:
 
Although the 2008 Presidential race has just ended, the contest to be the 2012 Republican nominee appears to be the most wide open contest in the history of the party. There is no strong front runner for 2012.
 
Among Republican primary voters nationwide, Mitt Romney (16%), Mike Huckabee (16%) and Sarah Palin (12%) top the list of potential Republican primary candidates for the 2012 Presidential election. Although Romney, Huckabee and Palin are the early frontrunners, the race is wide open with the largest segment of voters still undecided (29%).
 
Mike Huckabee has a distinct advantage among the more conservative Republican primary voter segments. He leads among conservative Republicans (22%), evangelical Chrisitan voters (20%), pro-life voters (22%) and those who attend religious services regularly (19%). Mitt Romney leads among moderate Republican voters (18%), and Catholics (19%), while conservative Independent voters favor Sarah Palin (21%).
 
Thinking ahead to the next Presidential election, if the 2012 Republican primary for President were held today and the candidates were Sarah Palin, Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Charlie Crist, Tim Pawlenty, John Thune, Steve Forbes, Newt Gingrich, Bobby Jindal and Mark Sanford, for whom would you vote?
Total/Party/Ideology
Total
Rep.
Ind.
Mod.
Cons.
Mitt Romney
16
18
12
16
17
Mike Huckabee
16
18
12
13
21
Sarah Palin
12
14
10
6
16
Rudy Giuliani
9
10
7
12
9
Newt Gingrich
7
9
5
2
11
Bobby Jindal
4
3
5
3
4
Steve Forbes
3
2
3
5
1
Charlie Crist
2
2
2
4
1
Tim Pawlenty
2
1
2
2
1
Mark Sanford
1
1
0
0
0
John Thune
0
0
0
1
0
DK/Refused
29
22
42
37
20
 
 
Party/Ideology
Lib.
Rep.
Mod.
Rep.
Cons. Rep.
Lib.
Ind.
Mod.
Ind.
Cons.
Ind.
Mitt Romney
19
18
18
11
14
13
Mike Huckabee
6
13
22
0
13
17
Sarah Palin
13
10
15
3
2
21
Rudy Giuliani
6
16
9
6
8
8
Newt Gingrich
6
3
11
3
1
10
Bobby Jindal
6
4
3
9
2
6
Steve Forbes
6
5
1
3
6
1
Charlie Crist
0
4
1
3
5
0
Tim Pawlenty
0
1
1
0
3
3
Mark Sanford
12
0
0
0
0
0
John Thune
0
1
0
0
0
0
DK/Refused
25
25
20
63
47
22
 
Religion/Born Again
Protestant
Catholic
Other Christian
Born Again
Not Born Again
Mitt Romney
15
19
19
11
22
Mike Huckabee
16
13
28
20
12
Sarah Palin
14
14
8
16
10
Rudy Giuliani
8
12
8
8
7
Newt Gingrich
8
9
3
11
5
Bobby Jindal
3
3
5
1
5
Steve Forbes
2
3
5
1
3
Charlie Crist
2
0
2
1
4
Tim Pawlenty
2
0
2
3
1
Mark Sanford
0
1
2
1
0
John Thune
0
0
0
1
0
DK/Refused
30
26
20
28
31
 
Abortion/Church Attendance/Gender
Pro-Life
Pro-Choice
Reg. Attend Church
Not Reg. Attend Church
Men
Women
Mitt Romney
16
16
15
18
16
16
Mike Huckabee
22
7
19
12
19
12
Sarah Palin
16
8
15
9
11
13
Rudy Giuliani
6
13
8
11
6
12
Newt Gingrich
10
4
9
4
9
5
Bobby Jindal
4
4
4
4
3
5
Steve Forbes
1
4
1
5
3
3
Charlie Crist
1
4
1
4
0
4
Tim Pawlenty
1
2
2
1
3
1
Mark Sanford
1
0
1
0
0
1
John Thune
0
1
0
0
0
0
DK/Refused
23
37
25
34
29
30
 
 
Age
18-25
26-40
41-55
56-65
Over 65
Under 55
Over 55
Mitt Romney
0
12
16
22
15
14
19
Mike Huckabee
27
19
12
19
16
15
18
Sarah Palin
7
14
14
10
11
14
11
Rudy Giuliani
0
16
11
4
8
12
6
Newt Gingrich
0
6
6
6
12
6
9
Bobby Jindal
7
3
5
3
2
5
3
Steve Forbes
0
8
3
1
1
4
1
Charlie Crist
0
0
2
3
2
2
3
Tim Pawlenty
0
0
3
1
1
2
1
Mark Sanford
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
John Thune
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
DK/Refused
59
20
27
30
31
27
30
 
Methodology:  
 
McLaughlin & Associates conducted a national post-election survey of 1,000 respondents who voted in the general election. All interviews were conducted on November 4th, 2008 via telephone by professional interviewers. Respondents were randomly selected within predetermined geographic units structured to correlate with actual voter turnout nationwide. The survey of 1,000 respondents who voted in the general election has an accuracy of +/- 3.1% at a 95% confidence interval.
 
The Republican Presidential Primary question was asked to 557 Republican and Independent voters. The accuracy for this sub sample is +/-4.1% at a 95% Confidence interval. 349 voters said that they were Republicans and 208 voters described themselves as Independents. The accuracy for these subsamples were respectively 5.2% for Republicans and 6.8% for Independents at a 95% confidence interval.